As March 2026 comes to a close, UAE motorists are looking toward the April fuel price announcement with a mix of caution and curiosity. Despite a recent, sharp pullback in global crude prices from their mid-month peaks, analysts suggest that a significant drop in retail petrol and diesel rates for April remains unlikely.
The UAE Fuel Price Committee is expected to announce the official rates on March 31, with the new prices taking effect on April 1.
The “Lagged Averaging” Effect
The primary reason for the expected price stability—or potential slight increase—is the way the UAE calculates its monthly retail rates. The committee uses the average price of crude oil from the preceding month rather than the price on a single day.
• The March Spike: Earlier in March 2026, geopolitical tensions caused Brent crude to spike dramatically, briefly touching nearly $120 per barrel.
• The Late Retreat: While prices have since cooled to around $90–$92 per barrel, the high averages from the first half of the month are already “baked into” the calculation.
• The Verdict: This mathematical reality means the recent market dip may have come too late to trigger a price cut at the pump for April.
Current vs. Projected Prices
For context, fuel prices saw a notable jump in March following two months of declines. Here is how the rates currently stand compared to the outlook for April.
| Fuel Grade | March 2026 (AED/L) | April 2026 (Projected) | Change Trend | 2026 High (To Date) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super 98 | 2.59 | 2.59 – 2.68 | Stable to Slight Increase | 2.59 (March) |
| Special 95 | 2.48 | 2.48 – 2.56 | Stable to Slight Increase | 2.48 (March) |
| E-Plus 91 | 2.40 | 2.40 – 2.47 | Stable to Slight Increase | 2.40 (March) |
| Diesel | 2.72 | 2.72 – 2.78 | Stable | 2.72 (March) |
| Global Market Data (For Reference Sheet) | ||||
| If you are tracking the “why” behind the prices, use this data for your secondary sheet: | ||||
| Indicator | February 2026 Avg | March 2026 Avg (Est.) | Impact on April Rates | |
| — | — | — | — | |
| Brent Crude ($/bbl) | ~$71.50 | ~$94.00+ | Upward Pressure | |
| Intraday Peak ($/bbl) | $73.00 | $119.50 (March 9) | Volatile | |
| Market Signal | Oversupply | Geopolitical Risk | Stability/Slight Hike | |
| Quick Summary for “Deep Dive” Analysis: |
Global Factors Weighing on April Rates
Several international drivers are keeping the energy market volatile, preventing a clear downward trend:
1. Geopolitical Risk Premium: While immediate fears of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have eased slightly, a “risk premium” remains. Markets are still sensitive to any developments between major regional players and the US.
2. Refinery Maintenance: Regional refineries often undergo seasonal maintenance in early spring. This temporary dip in local output can put upward pressure on the refined product prices that motorists actually pay.
3. Global Supply/Demand Balance: The IEA recently noted that while global demand growth is slowing, supply remains tight due to ongoing OPEC+ production strategies, keeping a floor under how low prices can go.
What This Means for You
For the average driver in the UAE, the news is a “mixed bag.” While you likely won’t see the relief of a price drop, the recent pullback in oil has at least removed the threat of a massive hike that seemed certain just two weeks ago. Motorists should budget for prices to remain very close to their current March levels.
